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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market as well. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very reputable gamer."
Although reputable money has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be shocked if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
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Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.
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Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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